Rosey's Outlook


by J.D. Rosendahl

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Stock Charts: Markets Break Support

$SPX 15 Minute:  Yesterday, I suggested I was looking for a bottom possibly today in the view of 5 Fibonacci days down combined with the over lapping corrective structure.  The market has pushed itself to a possible completion with a little shake out to 1,200-1,205 tomorrow followed by a reversal.




$SPX 60 Minute:   Below are the two WXY patterns up that make sense.




$SPX Daily:  The market broke below a lot of support today, so the door is wide open for a bearish move.  The RSI is trying to turn down too.  The lower blue pitchfork is also in play now.




IBM:  We finally have the start of some bearish looking technicals on Big Blue.  Divergences building with price falling below the prior peak,  Further declines add to the bearish view and impact Mr. Market greatly.




AAPL:  Potential double head and shoulders pattern.  If we actually got below the neckline the target is sub $300, and that's not good for Mr. Market either.



RTH:  The retail index has fallen back to the uptrend line with divergences.  This could turn bearish with further declines.



$USD:  The dollar rained all over the markets today.  If it's going up, that's not good for Mr. Market.




My Watch List:  In general, I'm looking for retailers for potential short candidates.  The following are the four charts I've shorted most recently with easy success.

GOLD Weekly:  This stock is displaying a reversal set up on the MACD that looks like a corrective mode should be upon on us.  Price should test cluster support at roughly $90.  Below that is far more bearish.





HANS:  For now it looks like an ascending wedge, which is bullish, but a pull back should continue based on the divergences.  If it gets below the uptrend line the bearish view gains momentum.





CMG:  Same pattern on CMG as HANS.





DECK Weekly:  Big divergences and price sitting right on the uptrend line.  A break down is viable.




From My Trading Desk:  Today was quite busy.  We closed yesterday's short on HANS, and scalped full position shorts on CMG, DECK, and GOLD.  At the end of the day, I put a full short on HANS back on.

Note:  The futures have the market opening down at 1,205.  If we open lower, I'm going to close my short on HANS for a gain if I have one.  Then I'm going to watch the market to see if do get that reversal, or do we continue lower.

If you've been following my trades they have been on the short side even though I've been expecting wave C up to start soon and bring a Santa rally.  The technicals are getting worse on individual stock charts, so I'm going with that, but I'm keeping my duration short because Mr. Market is driven by news out of Euroland, and that has been to unpredictable and the bounce for Santa is still viable.

Happy Trading.

J.D. Rosendahl, Rosey