Rosey's Outlook


by J.D. Rosendahl

Saturday, December 10, 2011

Stock Charts: Market Bounces Back to Resistance

$SPX 15 Minute:  Does the consolidation need to expand?  I'm in favor of that compared to it has bottomed and it's a new leg up.  In either case, we should know next week.



$SPX 60 Minute:  The last two days have swung back and forth in between the resistance and support zones.  We are in No Man's Land.  This could expand a little more next week.



$SPX Daily:  Price bounced Friday right back to the resistance zone.  I prefer the idea of a little more consolidation next week just below the black line, but nothing looks bearish.  The red line is the target in the view of ABC up with a time line of end of 2011 give or take a week.




$SPX Weekly Nonlog:  The target on the weekly chart is slightly higher than that of the daily but they are very close in the 1,320 to 1,325 area.  Again, this is the target in the view of ABC up.  MACD edging back up supports pricing move higher.



$SPX Monthly:  The down trend line on the monthly provides resistance in the same general area as the daily and weekly.  I full expect the market to move up and test that area.  The monthly MACD has crossed but it's failing to head lower and provide a more bearish feel.  Note:  If the market can find a way to get above the down trend line then 1,420ish is in play, which supports the bullish view.



IBM:  It still has the bullish theme working higher with room on the RSI and MACD to support higher pricing.  The bearish view would start to show up with divergences on the RSI and MACD and then price below the prior highs at $190.



AAPL:  Price should at least push up to and test the bottom of that gap area. 



My Watch List:  No charts, I'd like to see how next week starts.  Does the market break out to the up side, or do we need more consolidation?

My Trading Desk:  Friday we took small gains by closing shorts right after the open on HANS and WYNN.  They were small but I wanted to get out of the way of market strength working against those shorts and push more money to cash.

Next week, I want to see how the market starts the week before I make any new trades.  I still think we have another leg up even though the past few trades have been shorts.  Heading into the end of next week, and the following week I expect volume to be low during the holiday period and we need to be aware of that.

Happy Trading

J.D. Rosendahl, Rosey