Rosey's Outlook


by J.D. Rosendahl

Saturday, December 17, 2011

Stock Charts: The Market Again Can't Hold Gains.

$SPX 15 Minute:  The market tested the 1,232 area today and failed like yesterday.  Price is stuck in a down channel and the Fib retracement zone.  Above 1,232 might be the bullish confirmation near term.  I'd prefer to see one more shake out lower to finish this leg lower.  Maybe something around 1,200.



$SPX 60 Minute:  The 1,219 and 1,232 levels are proving to be a key price zone.



$SPX Daily:  The red trend lines are now the new No Man's Land, as price coils between them.  The last two days the market tried to rally but failed.  Those candlesticks suggest we need another push lower.



IBM:  Easily the most interesting development all week.  Big Blue is rolling over and sitting on uptrend support with divergences.  Early next week should be interesting for Big Blue.



The weekly on Big Blue shows the wedge pattern is right on top of an uptrend line.



The other uptrend of importance is on this chart, and we could slide down to it!





$RLX and RTH:  Both retail indexes are trying to hold uptrend lines.  If the market is ready to bounce, we could see these make another push up.  I'm personally bearish on retail regardless if it needs to push up or not.  A break down is the first little confirmation.





$CPC EMA 5 Day:  Does this need to go a little higher to confirm a market low for this stock market leg down?  I like that kind of correlation here, so maybe this is saying the market needs to splash lower next week.




$GOLD Weekly:  If the MACD is going to unwind itself to zero, there's a chance we chould test the first Fib. level at $1,450ish. 




My Watch List:

CMG:  A little lower Friday, and test of the uptrend line could be just around the corner.



RL Weekly:  This continued lower on Friday and has cluster support at $120, which we should test.  If so, this could break down next week, especially if the market shakes lower.



GOLD Weekly:  This stock bounced on Friday, and it might need to bounce to filled out a H&S top on the daily chart.  The weekly though still shows a stock that is tired with the weekly MACD rolling over and heading lower.  Cluster support is $90ish.




DECK Weekly:  With divergences in place, I think there's a very good chance we test the bottom wedge line.



FDX:  Price closed right at resistance on Friday.  Above it serves as a nice trigger.


From My Trading Desk:  Friday we scalped a gain on a full long of FDX and a loss on a full long of BLL.  The loss was smaller than the gain and the market looked like it was going to roll over, so I closed the two longs.

I'm looking for the Market to show us if the move down has finished or do we need a little more downside first.  Next week should provide those answers.

Happy Trading.

J.D. Rosendahl, Rosey