$SPX 60 Minute: We had support at 1,232 and 1,219-20, but the market pushed past both closing just below the later. I've got Fib retracement levels in green and we are close to testing the 38.2% level at 1,209. And we have price support with the 200 period MA in red.
On this larger pitch fork we have support on the middle line, which is very close tot he 38.2% retracement level.
$SPX Daily: Price reversed right where two trend lines converge. Now we have two down days. What I'll be looking for tomorrow is if the market will make it three for a 3 Black Crows candlestick pattern. If so, then we expect to see price trade down to the 50 day MA and the next price support at 1,190 tomorrow. I'm skeptical of that for now.
IBM and AAPL: It's really a simple story, if the markets are going to continue lower, I want to see IBM and AAPL confirm by breaking down. Close, but no cigar yet.
UUP: The second day in a row it's the most interesting thing going, a bullish dollar is not friendly for anything market related. Will the gap act as near term resistance?
My Watch list:
CMG: Divergences building with price declining today. What's missing is the MACD rolling over, and further price declines are required for that. Still can't rule out a little push higher. below the blue uptrend line would be far more bearish.
DECK: Possible broadening wedge on a market favorite. Price needs to break below the blue uptrend lines to possibly confirm. Price is really stuck in No Man's Land.
On the monthly chart we have large divergences. This is why I like this as a short candidate, even if I have to wait out another push up. massively over bought, a turn down in price and the monthly MACD would be interesting on this time frame.
WFM: Possible ending diagonal, with price falling below the blue uptrend line. We might get a back test of that but we have divergences on both the RSI and MACD, price should be getting tired!
RL: Possible ending diagonal with divergences. Below $150 would be the first little negative.
ROST: Divergences building with price and the MACD trying to roll over.
From My Trading Desk: Early in the day I closed my short on CMG for a big gain and my short on ROST for a small gain. I closed these shorts because the market open was so far below the lower BB on the 60 minute, and that's something I use often to close shorts.
For some reason I tried a fractional long on APKT, but quickly closed it for a tiny loss.
Towards the end of the day, I put the short back on for CMG and entered a new short on DECK. Both are aggressive trades to say the least. I'm still trying to keep the total positions or the individual positions light, it's small ball in the trading zone. We are still in No Man's Land and there are too many potential structures currently for Mr. Market.
The question for tomorrow is will we get the 3rd big down day in a row for a 3 Black Crows pattern. I'm skeptical of that, but it would be a bearish indicator. The 15 minute time frame is calling for a near term bounce but the move down so far looks impulsive.
we also can't rule out that the up move that began in early October is over, there is simply not enough technical damage.
If we open down, I will close any shorts for gains because we are over sold intraday.
J.D. Rosendahl, Rosey