Rosey's Outlook


by J.D. Rosendahl

Thursday, November 17, 2011

Stock Charts: Market Breaks Down

$SPX 15 Minute:  I'm still struggling with the idea that the super bearish Ewave count is under way downward.  I much prefer a correctional structure now, and one more climb.  So, is it abc down?  The MACD on this time frame is indicating a bounce coming.  And, there's no reason why this abc can't expand into a wedge either for the remainder of November.



$SPX 60 Minute:  Here I have the pitchfork with the 38% retracement level, which is where price was supported today.  If it's abc down, this is a natural place for it to end.  If so, prices should climb soon.





Here's a different pitch fork with the retracement levels.  Price fell to the 38% retracement level today.  Notice the middle pitch fork line and the 50% retracement level are next support at 1,183ish, if we need to break down further.  In this view, waves a and c would be equal if we traded down to that level.



$SPX Daily:  I still think the blue line at 78.6% retracement by end of Dec or early January is a better and more significant turning time frame.  Market has to find that minor turning time frame I'm looking for.  Could be today or maybe during the end of Nov.  If we get below 1,150, the market could be in serious trouble.




AAPL:  It still looks corrective down.  Today price closed a small gap and held the uptrend line.  The next day or two could be telling.



My Watch List:  I can't remember the last time I've been this uninterested in charts.  I'm still keeping it small and I'd still rather wait for Mr. Market to shows a little more data.

GOLD:  We took a short on this today because of the big divergences on the daily chart.  Price has yet to break the first prior peak, so it could wiggle higher one more time.  Below the first prior peak and it should fall to the next and maybe the uptrend line.



From My trading Desk:  Today we closed a full short on M and a fractional short on MCD for small gains.  We did take a new short on GOLD.

Like I said, I still think it's prudent to keep it small for the time being.

Happy Trading.

J.D. Rosendahl, Rosey