Rosey's Outlook


by J.D. Rosendahl

Monday, October 17, 2011

Stock Charts: Market Might Have Begun the Pull Back

$SPX 15 Minute:  The first little line in the sand is 1,190.  Ironically, the future's market has the $SPX at that level, so we could open and test that level tomorrow.




$SPX 60 Minute:  We have not done enough technical damage to rule out a push up into the resistance zone.  A move below 1,190 would probably confirm we are in correction or consolidation mode.  The green lines are fib retracement levels, and the red line is price support at 1,120.  We should pull back to at least 1,150 or the 50% retracement level.




$SPX Daily:  A pull back to the 50 day MA and middle BB seems like a perfect spot for the first portion of the pull back.




IBM:  This might be the most interest chart for tomorrow.  IBM reported earnings that met expectations, and it's off $7 in after hours trading.  We might open with a big gap down and test the lower wedge line.  This kind of reversal is something I've talked about a few times in the past week because it should pressure Mr. Market lower.



$VIX:  Possible 3 day bottoming pattern and right on top of support!



My Watch List:  It was a long day at the office today and I have no charts, but frankly, I probably wouldn't have any because the ones I had were long trades and I would rather watch Mr. Market here to confirm we are in pull back mode like I expect.

From my trading Desk:  I didn't care for the way the market opened today so we immediately sold APA and a little later COG, both for small gains.  It just seemed to fit given the weakness in the markets with the potential for a larger pull back hanging over the market.

Correction:  Yesterday, I said we bought COP on Friday, but we did not.

Once again I'm heavy cash and that's where I want to be.  I don't know if I'm going to short anything on the expected pull back or not.  It would have to be a great looking set up.

I'm more interested to see if Mr. Market can trade below 1,190 and stay below that level.  IBM should influence the market if it opens down like after hours trading suggests.

Happy Trading.

J.D. Rosendahl, Rosey