Rosey's Outlook


by J.D. Rosendahl

Sunday, July 31, 2011

Stock Charts: Still Waiting for a Deal in Washington

$SPX Daily:  I'm still looking for a finish to the wedge pattern and most likely to correlate with Washington solving the debt ceiling issues.  I have two general thoughts.  The first is a bottom for Wave E on last Friday or this coming Monday or maybe Tuesday.  Wave E would equal Wave A in time, and both would be half of Wave C in time.



The alternative would be a bottom to Wave E around August 19th when Wave E would equal Wave C in time.  Currently, in this view it would be a wedge for Wave E.  We might need more time for the BBs to pinch and the MACD finish it's work lower and a wedge structure is supportive to that idea.




$SPX Weekly:  On the weekly, there's still a little room before we test the up trend line.  It's something we should continue to watch. 




IBM:  Stock now has divergences forming with the MACD ready to turn down.  Will price and gap support hold for now?  Another push up should pinch the BBs too.



AAPL:  The stock still holds the steep uptrend line.  We could easily get another bounce higher.


My Watch List:  I have two bearish idea on my list.


WYNN:  Price reversed off the top channel line with the MACD rolling.  I'd prefer to see this bounce again if I were to short it though.




CMG:  Divergences in place but price has yet to break below the support line.


From My Trading List:  Just like I suggested Thursday, if the market moved lower Friday I would close my bearish trades from Thursday.  We closed both SRS and CMG for easy gains.  I was not interested in holding them in case Washington provided a debt ceiling solution.

Next Weeks Game Plan: Since the market is waiting for Washington to provide a deal, trading could be tough until there is one, so I'm going to remain light and nimble.  I want to see if we get that deal and how the market responds for a clue to Wave E.

Happy Trading

J.D. Rosendahl, Rosey