Rosey's Outlook


by J.D. Rosendahl

Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Stock Charts: Markets Push Higher 3 Days in a Row!

$SPX Daily:  The stock market is up nicely 3 days in a row but has yet to clear that 1,311 level where we create over lapping, which keeps the bullish view of another push higher the primary view.



IBM:  Still pushing forward.  What might make sense is an ascending wedge structure.



JNK:  Continues to push higher off support, the risk trade is back on for now!



The Risk Chart:  Continues to push higher indicating a bottom in the market.




XLF:  For the markets to go higher the financials need to participate.  above the blue resistance line is bullish for the financials, so lets keep an eye on that.




$TNX:  Have rates bottom?  If so, then bond values will decline, which should corresponds with advancing stocks markets, at least initially.  Much higher rates would be a serious head wind, but for now higher rates and lower bond values should correspond with a bouncing stock market.



My Watch List:  I finally have something I like.

MON:  Stock had a nice day as the company announced higher earnings expectations going forward.  Price is above the blue down trend line and looking to test the black down trend line.  MACD turning up, so far so good.




POT:  Stock is trying to break out from a wedge structure.  If so, we should see additional price movement higher and soon. 




CGEN:  I've looked at this several times waiting for C to finish.  The daily chart below still reflects price is within the down channel.  A good trigger is above the top channel line and even more so the blue line or price resistance.




The weekly chart on CGEN reflects a potentially large flat (ABC) pattern.  The question so far is where are we with wave C?  Has it finished or does it need a little more work lower?  Until it's above the down trend line for what is labelled C, the door is wide open for a little more work lower.  Interestingly enough all three waves currently are roughly equal in time.  My concern is the weekly MACD has yet to turn up and cross.



From My Trading Desk:  Today we bought a full position on MON.  If the markets are going higher, then this stock with good earnings data and price moving above resistance should work well.  We bought a fractional position on POT and UNP.  We also added to our minor position on CGEN.  It's still small because it's an aggressive little stock.

The market has moved very close to that 1,311 level, but as always, Mr. Market is making it tough on both bulls and bears in disguising it's intentions.  The next couple days should be interesting.  Do we take out 1,311, or not and roll over?

Happy Trading

J.D. Rosendahl, Rosey