Rosey's Outlook


by J.D. Rosendahl

Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Stock Charts: Market Rallies, Did ABC Down Finish?

$SPC 15 Minute:  There's a very good chance the ABC down has ended.  Wave B could be any of three peaks, but with today's advance it looks complete.




$SPX 60 Minute:  On the intraday, I'm highlighting 2 potential patterns and wave counts.  The first is a complete WXY for wave 4.  It's a 3-3-3.  The second chart on this time frame expands from WXY into a running wedge (ABCDE).  In either case, the suggestion is we have not finished moving higher on this leg up from the summer of 2010.



What I like about this chart below is wave D and E would take the daily MACD below zero to finish wave 4, which is what a typical wave 4 does before it completes.  The WYX if complete will not do that.




$SPX Daily:  Still riding the channel.  While the MACD is heading lower price is marginally off it's recent high and nothing bearish looking yet in price.  Again, a push up and push down to finish 4 would bring the MACD below zero, which is ideal for wave 4.



Note:  If wave 4 has or is in the process of finishing, then wave 5 higher should take us up to the 1,400 to 1,440 area, which is the next price resistance level.

$VIX:  The blue line once again has acted like resistance.  We have reversed and could easily test support and close the gap on the green line in the coming days.



IBM:  Big Blue has formed a little consolidation right on top of the prior peak, but reflects divergences.  We should see a break out one way or another in the near future.



JNK:  Even though we have divergences in place price grinds higher, classic Time Frame Divergence!!!  It will turn over some day, but the risk on trade is still working near term.



$CPC EMA 5 Day:  Way too many put buys, this needs to reverse sharply as the market goes higher to mark a market top of any significance.



My Watch List:  I was too busy at the office today to trade or look at charts, so I'm showing my two favorite charts at this time.  Neither one has hit a trigger yet.

JWN:  It still looks like an ending diagonal.  Price resting on cluster support of the 50 day MA, lower BB and trend line.  A break of that could bring selling pressure!  We should know soon.




CGEN:  A big sideways correction that looks like ABC.  C has yet to finish and waiting for a break above the blue down trend line as my trigger.



From My Trading Desk:  No trades today, still trying to keep it light.  Trading the past week or so has been tough in this little ABC pattern.  Waiting for Mr. Market to move and uncover better trades or patterns.

Happy Trading

J.D. Rosendahl, Rosey