Rosey's Outlook


by J.D. Rosendahl

Monday, May 23, 2011

Stock Charts: Market Heads Lower and Closes the Gap

$SPX 60 Minute:  This is the bullish view where the market is moving lower to finish C of 4.  We closed the gap today and no divergences yet.  C could go all the way to wave b of B.  Below that and the bearish view has more legs.




$SPX Daily:  Even though we closed the gap today the RSI and MACD have room to slide lower if price needs to probe lower.  The two blue lines make for good support and obvious areas for price to probe.



IBM:  Stock working a little lower with divergences and the MACD pushing lower.  Price is holding key price support for now.  If the market needs to probe lower then I like the idea of IBM pushing down to the uptrend line, which might hold.  Just spit balling some theory, nothing I'm trading.



AAPL:  The RSI and MACD still have room to support lower price.  The 200 day MA and price support seem likely, and if so, then it should be soon.



JNK:  Some interesting price action today on the JNK.  Let's see if we can get some follow through with these divergence in place.




$VIX:  What happened here.  Price couldn't hold most of the gain even though the market was off.  Failed once again at resistance.



$CPC EMA 5 Daily:  If the market needs to probe lower then we should expect this to test resistance above.  That seems logical.  That should be an area where we could see a market bottom with a $CPC top.




$USD:  The most likely near term outcome is a test of the down trend line.  If so, then the rising dollar should pressure stocks lower during this test.  The RSI on the dollar has room to support this outcome.



My Watch List:

MA:  the stock has a large inverse H&S bottom pattern but divergences building.  Do we get the classic back test of the neckline?  MACD has rolled over and the RSI has plenty of room to support lower pricing.  Price is trying to push below the lower BB.



RL:  Price drops below the uptrend line and testing the 50 day MA and lower BB.  If it's going lower it should happen soon!




JWN:  Price has been very sticky at cluster support with a little back test of the uptrend line today.  If it's lower this should reverse in the next 1-2 days.



AZO:  Price tried to sell off today but holds the prior price peak for now.




WYNN:  Price in an up channel with small divergences just on the RSI.  Is price ready for a break down to the bottom channel line?  If the MACD continues lower that should be likely!



WRN:  Still one of a couple long candidates.  Price held up nicely given the day.  Above the 50 day MA adds to the view this little ABC pattern is complete, or building into a wedge.



CGEN:  Friday's hammer failed as price gave way.  This is one reason why we wait for a break above the down trend line, which still serves as a trigger.  RSI almost oversold!




From My Trading Desk:  We took a gain by closing RL today.  We took a short on WYNN and MA.

I'm still trying to keep it simple and light.  Mr. Market is still trading in an area that keeps the bulls and bears on edge!  Did the market already put in a top?  Or is the market making some kind of minor low for a possible wave 4?  Mr. Market likes to keep participants guessing, at least for now, thus I like to keep it light and simple. 

Happy Trading!

J.D. Rosendahl, Rosey