Rosey's Outlook


by J.D. Rosendahl

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Stock Charts: Market turns a slow day!

$SPX 15 Minute:  Price today just continued yesterdays slide sideways.  This still looks like a continuation pattern and even if continues to grind slightly lower and sideways, I still think we get another move up on the intraday and close the gap right above current pricing.




$SPX 60 Minute:  We see the same thing here where price simply looks corrective to the side or a continuation pattern.  The MACD turning down might force this pattern to expand.




$SPX Daily:  On the daily time frame, I still think we push a little higher near term, but we cannot rule out a move lower to test the bottom channel line at 1,250 or even a tad lower to the prior peak in Nov 2010 at 1,225.





My Watch List:  It's all about the ABC structure.  You will notice when I find something that I like, I tend to find a lot of it.  Right now, we have a lot of potential ABC or corrective patterns, so the question is will they complete if not already and be good long side trading opportunities?

REE:  I've put an EW count on this one.  I've made the prior high wave 5 of 3 because often wave 3 completes with the highest MACD, so that's the beginning of my framework of this EW count.  Therefore, you expect wave 4 of 5 to correct to the prior wave 4, per EW theory in general, which is what has transpired in the latest correction into wave 4 of 5, a mostly sideways correction indicating another impulse wave up is viable.  Today's strong up move might be the beginning of wave 5 of 5.  Both the RSI and MACD have bottom and pushing high with the MACD crossing, that's all supportive of another impulse wave so far.  Price closed right at cluster resistance, which includes the down trend line, the upper BB and the 50 day MA.  Above that should add to the bullish view.




REDF:  This stock has made two very interesting correction patterns.  The first had price jumping higher when it was done.  Now the second one looks finished with today's advance on good volume breaking above the down trend  line and turning up the MACD.  Closing above the 50 day MA and pushing the upper BB would be the next bullish step, so lets look to see if we get that soon.




DAL:  Oil was up today and this was weak.  I still think there's a good chance we test the black support line and the lower channel line in blue.  If that holds with a reversal day, then we might have an opportunity.




AMZN:  Is wave C finished?  Maybe not.  MACD still allows for a little more shake out to the down side.




UHAL:  Ditto the comments on AMZN.




From My Trading Desk:  Today was unexpectedly busy.  I scalped a full short on RVBD for a 1.7% gain.  I scalped a fractional long on REE for a nice gain.  I closed my half long on UHAL early in the day for a small gain.  We also bought a 1/3 long of REDF.  Today was a fun day to say the least.

We also picked up a couple of new trading ideas in REE and REDF, both well worth watching near term.

Happy Trading.

J.D. Rosendahl, Rosey