$SPX Daily: MACD struggling to turn down. We should see that happen about the same time the RSI falls back below 70, but so far, nothing terribly bearish in price yet even though we are over bought.
$COMPQ: Squeezing another high today. We are forming divergences on both the MACD and RSI.
IBM: A solid move up today and pushing past resistance. The RSI suggests we have a few more up days left for price to move higher.
JNK: Still grinding higher while scratching a new high. Still wailing to see if those divergence form.
$VIX: It tried to turn up today but not a very exciting move. Still in No Man's Land between support and resistance lines.
$CPC 5 Day EMA: Note the intraday low! I suggested to watch that in the past 1-2 days because we are close to those levels that mark a top and we might see it more clearly on the intraday number than the closing data. I'd still like to see this bounce off those red lines.
$USD: A break above resistance. Next stop could easily be the upper BB and the 200 day MA. Above that is price resistance. Plenty of room on the RSI to support price and the MACD might cross and turn up. The dollar going higher can't be good for commodities.
SLV: Very little follow through today, but the MACD is trying to move lower. It could pick up speed as price moves lower. We should know very soon. Seems logical to expect that if the dollar is going higher!
$WTIC: Oil is trying to roll over. We might have a diagonal moving up that looks to be finished with the MACD turning lower. Again, we should expect this to move lower if the dollar is going up.
It seems like we might have a little rotation out of dollar sensitive commodity plays if the dollar is going to continue higher. It also seems like the stock markets have more time before a more definitive top is in place, at least based on the price structure on the 60 minute and daily charts. We might have a little time frame indifference from the weekly time frame influencing price structure. That being said, the $CPC is close to key levels where a reversal could happen.
My Watch List:
CVX and COP: A couple of oil names that have similarities. Price moving strongly higher but might have hit a wall. RSI and MACD trying to roll over as the US dollar moves higher. They both look a little tired. Both could easily push another high. Both look like they need a correctional phase to begin soon. As a bearish trade, I would call these aggressive as they both are market darlings.
RGLD: How good has this one performed. It's tough to beat good structure and an ending diagonal is as good as it gets. We should trade lower to the first red line which is price support and the 200 day MA. We should eventually move down to the second red line and reverse the diagonal completely. RSI has room to support lower pricing. Notice how price is really pushing the lower BB lower.
FLS: This bearish set up is working good. Divergences on the RSI and MACD in an over lapping price structure with price clearly back below the prior peak. A little wedge formation on the MACD with the MACD turning over. Price should accelerate lower in the near future.
COST: Stock is trying to roll over with divergences in place. We could easily trade down to the 50 day MA.
FDX: Notice the MACD is barely drifting lower. Classic confirmation of a sideways move, which is usually a continuation pattern. This should eventually move higher and take a firm test of the prior high.
TJX: Very nice looking chart for the bullish trade. A big inverse H&S pattern in play. Price bolted higher today above the current down trend line in red.
UUP: A little break above the down trend resistance line. Upper BB and the 200 day MA are the near term targets. Plenty of room on the RSI to support that outcome.
SRS: It's trying to turn up but it needs to get above the near term resistance with a cross on the MACD.
FAZ: The MACD is on the verge of turning up. We took a small position today as I'm bottom fishing. It's not really a bullish trade until we close the gap in the blue box and trade above resistance lines in red.
From My Trading Desk: Early in the day we closed our full long on FDX and our full short on COST, both for gains.
During the day we took and closed a full short on FLS for a nice gain.
Later in the day, we took a small long on UUP and FAZ. Yes, I'm bottom fishing on the FAZ, but the position is small. We also took a 1/2 of a position short on COP and COST.
I have a number of fractional positions on the bearish side working, which for now is plenty. While I think we could have selling pressure at any moment, it could easily be followed by another small push higher. Mr. Market is in No Man's Land for the time being.
Happy Trading.
J.D. Rosendahl, Rosey