Rosey's Outlook


by J.D. Rosendahl

Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Stock Charts: Stock Markets Do Little Before Obama Tonight

$SPX 60 Minute:  Today gave us very little.  Price is still open to do anything but since we have not broken down the door is open for another push higher on this leg up and we might need to test the 1,300 to 1,310 area.  Given we get the State of the Union tonight and Bernanke tomorrow, I would expect markets to move out of this little consolidation in red lines tomorrow.





$SPX Daily:  Still nothing new the past few days.  Price stuck in No Man's Land.  The trend lines are still a price zone we could test and very soon.





$INDU:  MACD still drifting higher.  Nothing bearish in today's price bar.  Money seems to be flowing into blue chips!




$TRAN:  I've got the pitchfork on the transports.  While they are not confirming the DOW's push higher they have yet to break below the middle pitchfork line (support).  Will it find support and bounce, or break down and slide.  We should know soon.




$RUT:  There's a bit of rotation out of risk and into blue chips, which explains why the small cap index is not preforming as well.  If this needs to head lower the 50 day MA is just below.  Then I've put in some support lines based on price.




IBM:  The stock was up today, which held up the market.  It did finish with a tail on the candlestick, but since the BBs are still widening, I'm not viewing it as bearish.  IBM still supports the market.




JNK:  Grinding higher.  Still has more upside and not bearish unless it's below the trend line.  JNK represents the risk trade in part is still on even though it's coming out of the small caps a bit.  Waiting for price and the MACD to resolve itself for better clues.



$VIX:  Another stall at resistance and price has yet to do anything significant.




$CPC:  The stock market is at highs but this is moving higher?  Odd, something in this relationship needs to give.  We still might need the market to move higher and squeeze more bears out!





$WTIC:  Oil broke down a little.  It's interesting because everyone is calling for higher oil and gas, and that may be the long term trend, but we have price breaking down a little from an ending diagonal.  That's bearish until something changes, anymore down side follow through this week adds to the bearish view.




GLD:  Could be a rounded top, not my favorite pattern for trading.  Price is testing support.  Below that, and the next support is in the red box.  RSI has room to support a break down to the next level.




From My Watch List:  I'm still not that excited about most charts, which may confirm we are a little bit of No Man's Land.

FCX:  Continued lower and right on top of price support.  A move below would open the door to the next price support.



AGU:  We closed our short today for a nice gain.  Little divergences on both the RSI and MACD.  Price trying to roll but a little sticky.  If we get below the 50 day MA maybe the selling pressure might pick up.




MOS:  A little bear flag sitting right on top of both price and trend support.




MELI:  We closed our short on this as well today.  We have the 50 day MA and bottom channel line as near term targets.




From My Trading Desk:  Early in the day we closed our shorts on AGU and MELI with nice gains.  I just wasn't that thrilled with the market today.  I did end up shorting a full position on MOS because it looks like a little bear flag.  I'm still trying to keep my trades light and short in duration because Mr. Market is in No Man's Land and we have Obama tonight and Bernanke tomorrow.  And as much as I hate making assumptions, I have to assume they are going to tell the markets what they want to hear and we could see SP500 trade toward 1,310.  If they don't, any disappointing could spark a larger daily sell off with all the bullish sentiment.

Happy Trading

J.D. Rosendahl, Rosey