Rosey's Outlook


by J.D. Rosendahl

Wednesday, January 5, 2011

Stock Charts: Mr. Market Continues to Grind Higher!

$SPX 60 Minute:  Price still moving higher with no topping structure.  We have divergences on the MACD but that's it.


$SPX Daily:  The trend line that bisects the move higher still holding price.  If we need to test it again that's around 1,285.  We should be close to a near term high.



XLF:  Continues to move higher out of a large basing pattern, which is supportive to the broader market.  It's over bought and approaching resistance.



IBM:  Nothing new, still stalling at the prior high.



JNK:  As expected, it scratched a new high and hit over bought.  Let's see if it forms a divergence and rolls over!




$VIX:  Stuck between support and resistance.  If the inverse H&S pattern is good, this needs to reverse and head higher very soon.




SLV:  Market has fallen below the uptrend line with a string of divergences.  The only thing missing now is follow through to the downside.  If so, we should test the lower BB and 50 day MA very soon.


$CPC 5 Day EMA:  Quickly approaching levels where the stock market made highs in January and April of 2010.  We should keep an eye on this one, it's been a great indicator for market highs.  Note the actual close today was .71!




$USB:  Bond market fell right back to resistance.  Major resistance is only about 4% below today's price.  Note the cross of the 50 and 200 day MAs.  The weekly chart suggests we could test major support in the near future.



COST:  The retail sector has been on a very nice move higher the past few months but very over bought.  Here we see divergence on the RSI and MACD with price turning down.



FDX:  Stuck between support and resistance in a sideways move.  Indicating another splash higher should be coming.  I think we get a firm test of resistance.  There's just not much bearish on that structure.



FLS:  Over lapping waves higher, price dropped today back below the prior peak and both the RSI and MACD trying to turn and head lower.  Only thing missing a price pushing  lower to confirm the bearish view.




FCX:  Divergences on the RSI and MACD and price looks tired moving higher.  No real follow through on price moving down.  We need a little more price data.




RGLD:  We had a follow through day today as price fell below the lower BB pressuring the BBs apart.  An ending diagonal calls for a complete reversal of that pattern so we could easily get back to $47, maybe all the way back to $42.


GLL:  A little follow through today but it has not pushed past cluster resistance (price, upper BB, and the 50 day MA).  Above that and the bullish view gains strength.  MACD has turned up again and we have a couple nice days of buying volume.



UUP:  Looks like a little ABC pattern may have finished and we're ready to rally again.  We should know very soon with a break out!


SRS:  We have a potential two today reversal candlestick pattern but no follow through today.  RSI is bouncing off over sold.  We need to get above resistance with the MACD turning up to gain in the bullish view.


From My Trading Desk:  Early in the day we closed both shorts on FCX and FLS for gains.  I'm still trying to keep my trades and positions light.  I also took the gain on GLL.  Later in the day, we bough a full long on FDX and took a full short on COST.

The best performers today were momentum names, which is not really my trading style.  Outside of that, there are few really good bullish or bearish patterns.  It seems like the market is in No Man's Land and I want to stay light in that zone.

Note:  It's not on the watch list, but I might try another attempt at FAZ if the situation feels right tomorrow or Friday.  Yes, it's aggressive.

Happy Trading.

J.D. Rosendahl, Rosey