Rosey's Outlook


by J.D. Rosendahl

Monday, January 10, 2011

Stock Charts: A Little More Corrective Behavoir

$SPX 60 Minute:  Price bounces off gap resistance again.  The price structure down looks ABC like.  It might need to expand in an effort to work off being over bought, but it doesn’t look overly bearish in nature yet.  Below is my labelling!



$SPX Daily:  Could the above ABC structure turn into a series of 1s and 2s?  Sure, but for me, I'd have to see price become impulsive looking and break below the bottom black trend line.  I'm looking at the market as bullish above the blue line, uptrending near term between the lines, and bearish to some degree below the black line.


 
A Quick Look Back:  Remember this chart from a week ago?  I was trying to show how similar the market moves looked from bottom to top. 


Now take a look at the past few days.  The correction so far seems orderly just like the last one from the November top.  As long as that stays the case, I still like the idea of a pull back to the black line and another push higher. It takes bearish price structure to change that view and we simply do not have it yet.



IBM:  Nothing really new on IBM.  Waiting for it to make up it's mind!


JNK:  I've put a little wave count on this one.  We might need a little wave 4 and 5 to finish this move higher!



$VIX:  Another weak break higher, which has been the norm now for months.  A firm close above the 50 day MA and upper BB would be far more interesting.



My Watch List:  Once again it's becoming difficult to find chart structure I like, which probably confirms Mr. Market is in No Man's Land.

NFLX:  I hate to put a mo mo stock on the watch list, but the price structure looks simply corrective and with today's advance it could be ready for another move higher.  MACD ready to turn higher!  And yes, it's an aggressive trade


FDX:  Still grinding completely sideways with the MACD just drifting and I still think it tests it's former high and probably moves past that.


UUP:  To maintain a bullish view, I'd like to see this above price resistance and the upper BB.  That being said, there's nothing bearish in this structure so far.


FLS:  Today's bounce gives me a little ulcer but price is still below major resistance and this could be just a little consolidation pattern before we move lower.  We should know in the next couple days.



RGLD:  Price tested the 200 day MA today.  If I had a short position, this would have been the day to close it and wait for a little corrective bounce.


SRS:  Another attempt at the resistance line but could not over come it.  Based on the chart, something has to give soon.



From My Trading Desk:  Today we took small gains by closing shorts on COST and COP.  I just wasn't seeing he follow through I want in the market or the stocks.  We did take a full short on FLS and a full long on FDX.  I was a little busier today than I thought I would be.  That being said, I still think we need a little more price data on the market and keeping it as light as possible seems appropriate.

Happy Trading.

J.D. Rosendahl, Rosey