In last night’s weekend update, I spelled out what’s bullish and what’s not bullish because the market is providing mixed indications currently as to the bullish view. Even though the $SPX is giving bullish indications there are plenty of mixed signals at the moment.
I also suggested that I’m not wildly enthusiastic about trading the long side due to a lack of charts that fit what I’m looking for. Finally, I also stated that Sept. 28th or end of Sept. fits for some kind of over bought high for the market and we should watch the market this week to see if that unfolds.
$SPX Daily: The market stalled a little today, and a continuation to stall and top below the upper Bollinger Band adds to the view of a near term high in the market. A decisive fall below the support line would also add to that view. Below, I've labelled what might be the only bearish wave count left from the April high. If this is to be the case, my outlook for an end of Sept. high fits nicely. Again, I'm looking for price to stall and top below the upper Bollinger Band and then proceed below the neckline, which is now support while rolling the MACD. The door is open for a little more upside as part of this process. I'm currently not trading this view yet, as it's too early.
IBM: Still moving higher out of what is currently a basing pattern. That's bullish until it’s not and a positive for the market.
JNK: Grinding higher and that too is positive. However, we have massive divergences going and a correction of some kind is in the near term.
$COMPQ: Failed to continue higher. It’s very close to over bought and we need to watch for a top developing below the upper Bollinger Band. It’s still bullish for the time being but that could change soon. A test of price resistance seems likely near term.
$VIX: MACD still in an inverse H&S pattern. Bollinger Bands and trend lines pinching. A break out has to be in the cards soon.
XLF: If there’s a chart of concern for the market it’s this one. Failing big to even test resistance. There’s no way the greater market goes higher without this index.
Big Five Tech
BIDU: Big move today. Even though it’s over bought, I doubt the high for this stock is in yet. No bearish price structure at all and no real divergences.
AAPL: Big move higher recently and it’s beginning to look a little tired. But like BIDU, no real topping structure nor big divergences.
GOOG: I’ve said in the past and it’s worth repeating: If the markets are going higher, GOOG will play catch up, which it has been doing recently. Trades above first downtrend line heading for the second, which seems likely.
AMZN: Even though it too is over bought, no topping structure or divergences.
PCLN: This one is beginning to struggle higher. Might be ready for a little corrective resting.
Big Tech Summary: While most of the big 5 are over bought and due a pull back, there’s nothing terribly bearish about their price structures or are there big divergences. As long as they stay strong, so does the market.
My Watch List: I only have a couple things for my watch list.
SRS: A little rebound from Friday’s sell off. We have a 1/3 position going for the time being. The two prominent buy zones are above price resistance at $22 and $24. We have bullish divergences on the MACD and RSI, so I’m comfortable being a little early on my fractional position. Looking to add to it should we move though resistance and down trend lines.
NEM: I shorted a ½ position of this a couple weeks ago, which turned out to be early. Today, price fell and looks to roll over the MACD. The price structure up still looks over lapping up with divergences, and that looks tired to me. Currently at support, so maybe one more push higher.
BXP: This REIT looks tired. below major support and a gap adds to the bearish view.
UNP: While it looks tired, I think we get a little more price upward. If this is a wave 5 up, it could be a nice short candidate. The safe trade is to wait until it’s back below major price support.
WRLD: We have divergences and price looks tired. I like it as a short if price get’s below $41.50 with the MACDs rolling over.
From My Trading Desk: Today I filled the short on NEM to full. I don’t normally like to add to a position slightly under water, but I like these technical’s so far, so I’m full on this trade.
J.D. Rosendahl, Rosey